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By
Reuters
Published
Oct 19, 2009
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Bain sees tepid recovery in global luxury sales in 2010

By
Reuters
Published
Oct 19, 2009

HONG KONG, Oct 19 (Reuters) - The global market for luxury goods will shrink by 8 percent this year, according to Bain & Co, and grow just 1 percent next year, but the impact of the global recession has not been as severe as expected six months ago and currency appreciation has boosted Asian purchasing power.



In April, Bain estimated global luxury sales would decline 10 percent this year.

The U.S. consulting company said the first signs of a market recovery would emerge by the end of this year, forecasting fourth-quarter sales to drop just 1 percent from a year earlier. However, it said the market would grow only 1 percent in 2010 and not fully recover until 2011, when Bain expects a 4.2 percent increase in global sales.

British luxury fashion house Burberry (BRBY.L) announced better-than-expected second-quarter revenue last week, indicating consumer confidence may be improving.

Bain said luxury sales this year in Asia-Pacific ex-Japan would rise 10 percent, slightly better than last year's 9 percent growth, but well below 16 percent growth in 2007.

Rising Asian sales would be offset this year by an expected 16 percent drop in sales in the Americas, which accounted for nearly a third of the world market, it said

China remains the fastest-growing major market for luxury brands but projected sales growth this year of 12 percent will be less than half last year's 30 percent increase. Chinese sales were affected by the economic slowdown in the first quarter and the luxury market in top-tier cities Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou was already reaching maturity, Bain said.

HERMES PESSIMISTIC

Sales of luxury goods worldwide shrank last year for the first time, by 2 percent, as the global economic downturn and financial crisis battered consumer confidence and eroded wealth.

This year, sales in Europe, which account for 38 percent of global sales, are estimated to fall 8 percent, against a 1 percent decline in 2008.

French luxury group Hermes (HRMS.PA), famous for its handbags and silk scarves, said this month that the industry was not out of the woods yet and any improvement in the next 15 months was unlikely. That contrasted with French fashion and leather goods company Louis Vuitton (LVMH.PA), which said it was "very optimistic" about the Christmas period.

Bain sees luxury sales in Japan, which has 12 percent of the world market, dropping 10 percent this year.

Sales were being hit by both the financial crisis and a generational shift as younger Japanese prefer mixing luxury goods with niche local brands, and new luxury store openings have been cancelled or delayed, Bain said.

The Asia-Pacific ex-Japan will see its share of the global market rise to 15 percent this year, from 13 percent in 2008. Currency appreciation in South Korea and some of its neighbours was giving Asian consumers more purchasing power, Bain said. (Reporting by Susan Fenton, Editing by Chris Lewis) ([email protected]; +852 2843 6367; Reuters Messaging: [email protected])

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