Holiday retail sales to increase 7-9%: Deloitte

By

Jennifer Braun

Published
Sep 15, 2021

Retail sales are expected to make a jump this holiday season, but e-commerce sales will jump even higher.

According to Deloitte's annual holiday retail forecast, holiday retail sales are likely to increase between 7 and 9 percent in 2021, compared with the same period in 2020, with sales expected to total $1.28 to $1.3 trillion during the November to January timeframe.

Meanwhile, it forecasts that e-commerce sales will grow by 11 to 15 percent, year-over-year, during the 2021-2022 holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $210 billion and $218 billion this season.

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The increase reflects continued growth. Last year's holiday sales came in higher than expected, growing by 5.8 percent.

"We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster.

“A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season. Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories.”

Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte, added that shopping conditions amid the Covid-19 pandemic will improve this season.

"While consumer concerns about health and safety have eased since the last holiday season, pandemic-influenced shopping behaviors continue to gain traction. Retailers who remain resilient to shifting consumer behaviors and offer convenient options for online and in-store shopping, as well as order fulfillment, will be poised for growth this holiday season, and into the new year,” said Sides.