US most to lose from trade war, China to benefit: ECB

The United States would have most to lose if it started a trade war with other countries, while China would be better off after retaliating, according to a recent study by the European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt. 

The theoretical study that not replicate actual trade conditions simulated a 10 per cent US tariff on all imports and an equivalent retaliation from other countries.
US growth would be cut by more than 2 percentage points, the ECB estimates.

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By contrast, China would gain by exporting more to countries where US goods are subject to tariffs, although that slight gain would be temporary and partly offset by a negative effect on confidence, global news wires reported citing the study.
Global trade, meanwhile, could fall by up to 3 percent relative to the baseline.